US-Japan Deal Tracker: Portfolio Update, SEC Filings, MP +37%, SMR +25%, Congress Already Buying

The prior Politraders piece, Japan's $550 Billion Framework: The Post-Summit Month in US Regulatory Records, documented what materialized in the month after the March 19 summit: JBIC's April 14 prospectus naming the framework and the tranche-2 allocation by US state, the March 31 JBIC-MUFG $2.375 billion loan to Mitsubishi for the Aethon III and Aethon United private-gas acquisition, the NuScale proxy on April 15 revealing the consortium wrapper that keeps every individual Japanese filer below the Schedule 13G threshold, Brookfield's April 2 correction to Westinghouse's commitment ($80 billion with the US Government, not $100 billion with Japan), and Finance Minister Katayama's April 18 announcement that a FEFTA amendment bill establishing a “Japanese version of CFIUS” has been submitted to the Diet.

On April 1, 2026, before those filings became public, we launched the Autopilot US-Japan Deal Tracker, a twelve-stock bilateral-only portfolio derived from the three qualifying US-Japan framework documents. Twenty trading days later, the portfolio sits at +11.07 percent using close-to-close Yahoo prices and the March 27 published weights: MP Materials is up 36.81 percent, NuScale Power is up 24.66 percent, Hudbay Minerals, Brookfield Corp, Cameco, and GE Vernova are each up double digits.

This piece covers three things: which tickers exploded and why, what the congressional-disclosure record showed before the portfolio went live, and what the media is missing about how the $550 billion actually moves.

Which Tickers Exploded, and Why

What does an 11-percent return over three weeks tell you about a thesis that rests on a framework whose program deadline is almost three years out? It tells you the early allocations are arriving, that each allocation touches a concentrated basket of publicly-traded operators, and that six names inside the portfolio have already cleared the “deal is real” bar.

MP Materials moved exactly as the thesis anticipated. The portfolio scored MP on a 7-percent weight because of the binding DOD $100-per-kilogram neodymium-praseodymium price floor deployed July 2025, the $400 million DOD equity stake plus $150 million loan, and the USTR Action Plan plus Japan-side JOGMEC-REAlloys MoU. The 36.81-percent move since April 1 reflected those pre-existing structural supports compounding with Trump critical-minerals executive orders. The underlying thesis did not re-rate; it compounded. The same price action produced insider Form 144 filings on April 17 and again on April 20, documenting proposed sales during the rally.

NuScale Power's run to +24.66 percent is a different pattern. NuScale's April 15 DEF 14A (accession 0001822966-26-000042) disclosed that Japan NuScale Innovation LLC holds 5.71 percent of total voting power, with four Japanese beneficial owners: JBIC, JGC America, IHI Americas, and Chubu Electric Americas. Kazuhiro Fujino, former head of JBIC's equity investment operations, was nominated to the NuScale board. Same day, Fluor Corporation's Nuke Holdings subsidiary sold 12,936,472 Class A shares to Citibank at $11.6293 per share under a pre-arranged February 17 letter agreement (Schedule 13D/A Amendment No. 9, accession 0001124198-26-000045, filed April 17). That transaction cleared a known institutional overhang. Between the JNI structure confirmation and the Fluor overhang clearance, NuScale rallied 14.24 percent on a single day (April 15) on top of an earlier Ebara Elliott Energy partnership announcement. Ebara is a Japanese engineering firm. The April 15 move compressed a Japanese-sovereign disclosure and a Japanese-industrial partnership into the same trading session.

GE Vernova's April 3 DEF 14A (accession 0001996810-26-000049) revealed a separate $100 billion US-Government SMR memorandum of understanding. The commitment is US-domestic, and it stacks on top of Japan's $40 billion tranche-2 SMR allocation against the same BWRX-300 product line. GEV cleared its 52-week high and sat at the 14-percent concentration cap through the window. Cameco's +11.24 percent and Brookfield Corporation's +14.53 percent tracked the Westinghouse-US-Gov clarity documented in Brookfield's April 2 8-K. Hudbay Minerals ran on the January Mitsubishi deal compounding with copper.

The two positions that did not participate (Kinder Morgan and Alcoa) both have reasons the portfolio's methodology recognizes as non-rebalancing. Kinder Morgan is waiting on its July 31 FERC certificate decision for the SSE4 and MSX pipelines. Alcoa's April 16 8-K was a Q1 earnings release, which the portfolio's rules exclude from rebalancing absent a fundamentals shift. Both hold at current weight.

Congress Was Already Buying

What does an HPSCI member doing his only two trades of the year on the February 17 first-tranche announcement day tell us about advance committee knowledge? The same Supabase query that anchored the base-rate analysis in our previous piece, run again, this time from the October 28, 2025 Joint Fact Sheet publication through the portfolio's March 27 publication, surfaces a pattern that public news has not covered. Members on HPSCI, Armed Services, Foreign Affairs, and Energy committees were buying deal-sector equities for five months before the portfolio went live.

Cisneros's three MHVYF purchases deserve their own paragraph. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Tokyo 7011, OTC MHVYF) is the largest Japanese nuclear supplier and was named in mid-March 2026 coverage as one of three Japanese participants in the Westinghouse AP1000 roles agreement. Cisneros bought MHVYF on November 20, three weeks after the Joint Fact Sheet, and then twice more (February 3 and February 13) as the first tranche approached. He is the only member of Congress in the window who held MHVYF exposure at all. The three transactions predate MHI being publicly named. The dollars involved are modest ($1,001 to $15,000 per trade), but concentration against the Japanese-supplier universe is 100 percent.

The most concentrated single-day pattern remains Austin Scott's February 17 spouse-directed sells of GE and GE Vernova. Scott sits on HPSCI plus Armed Services plus Rules plus Agriculture. Those were his only two disclosed trades in the window. The portfolio's certainty-score factor weights exactly this kind of committee-overlap plus concentration signal, and Hickenlooper's $50-100K ETN purchase (Senate Energy Committee, Jan 14) was the largest single-trade allocation to the deal-sector universe by any senator in the window.

What the Media Is Missing

If the Westinghouse $80 billion is with the US Government, outside the $550 billion Japanese framework, why is it still listed on a joint fact sheet that carries Japan's name?

Brookfield Asset Management's April 2 8-K (accession 0001104659-26-039217), incorporating the firm's CEO annual letter as Exhibit 99.1, states an “$80 billion strategic partnership between Westinghouse and the U.S. government.” Cameco's March 19 Form 40-F and February 13 Form 6-K use the same $80 billion figure with the same US Government counterparty. The $100 billion language paired with Japan in the October 2025 Joint Fact Sheet does not appear in any SEC filing. The media is missing this number change and what it implies about the framework's actual composition. Westinghouse runs through a Cameco-Brookfield joint-venture capital structure separate from the $550 billion Japanese framework, and the Japanese participants named in March press coverage (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Toshiba, IHI Corporation) have publicly declined to confirm specific commitments.

The media is also missing the consortium architecture. NuScale's April 15 DEF 14A showed that Japan NuScale Innovation LLC sits at 5.71 percent, just over the Schedule 13G 5-percent trigger, while its four Japanese beneficial owners (JBIC, JGC, IHI, Chubu Electric) each hold a diluted fraction well below 5 percent on a look-through basis. The LLC is the only 5-percent filer. A SEC EDGAR search across the seven US public-issuer counterparties named in or adjacent to the tranche-2 allocations returns zero Schedule 13D or 13G filings by any Japanese entity across 109 days. The architecture is designed to satisfy the disclosure regime as written. Popular coverage tracks the headline dollar commitments; the actual equity flows remain invisible on standard screener tools.

The media is missing the Fluor block sale that drove most of NuScale's April 15 move. Retail financial press attributed the 14.24-percent single-day gain to NuScale's Ebara Elliott partnership and to regional governors' backing of advanced nuclear. The Schedule 13D/A filed April 17 discloses that Fluor's Nuke Holdings subsidiary sold 12,936,472 Class A shares to Citibank at $11.6293 per share the same day, under a pre-arranged February 17 letter agreement. Fluor's remaining position is 13.5 million shares, 3.9 percent.

The media is missing Mitsubishi UFJ's Schedule 13D/A Amendment No. 22 (accession 0001193125-26-151892) filed April 13, extending MUFG's standstill and preemptive-right expiration on its 23.95-percent Morgan Stanley stake from April 13, 2026 to October 13, 2028, covering the remainder of the Strategic Investment Initiative window. The amendment does not reference the framework by name. The timing links them. The media is missing that NextEra dropped 3.2 percent on the Commerce Department's March 20 operator-naming day. The stock has been range-bound since. The joint-ownership structure caps the operator's return to fees, and any upside from project equity accrues to the government co-owners. And the media is missing the MP Materials Form 144 filings on April 17 and April 20, which document insider proposals to sell during the +36.81 percent rally.

Portfolio Update: What We Are Changing

Three trims flow directly from the Westinghouse re-attribution. The binary inclusion rule keeps all three names in the portfolio (the October 28 Joint Fact Sheet still names Westinghouse, and the rule removes a stock only when it is formally removed from a subsequent bilateral document). The five-factor composite model's Deal Size and Certainty factors re-score: the Japan-framework Deal Size drops sharply for Cameco, Brookfield Corporation, and Brookfield Renewable because Westinghouse's $80 billion runs outside the $550 billion framework, while Certainty of a Japanese-capital flow into Westinghouse falls because the named Japanese participants remain non-committal.

The freed ten percent redeployed into SMR, CARR, and KMI, where April triggers fired: NuScale's JNI 5.71 percent consortium plus Fluor block clearance, the intact Carrier $20 billion commitment, and the approaching July 31 Kinder Morgan FERC certificate.

What to Watch Next

The next nine months produce a dense catalyst calendar. Every date has a primary-source anchor.

Bottom Line

The portfolio is up 11.07 percent in twenty trading days because the research anticipated how the framework would actually move: through sovereign bond issuance documented in US securities filings, through consortium LLCs engineered to satisfy disclosure rules as written, through a separate US-Government mirror on the SMR side, and through corporate vehicles that leave thin traces on popular screeners. Congressional members on committees with information access to the framework's national-security, energy, and financial components were positioning in the same tickers for five months before the portfolio went live. Three Westinghouse-exposure trims reflect the re-attribution of $80 billion from Japan to the US Government, with the freed capital redeployed into SMR, CARR, and KMI where April primary-source triggers fired.

Follow the portfolio, the primary-source filings, and the SEC docket on the Autopilot US-Japan Deal Tracker.

Sources

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All congressional trade data is sourced from publicly available financial disclosure filings. Dollar amounts, deal structures, and company details are derived from official government documents and SEC EDGAR filings. Timing correlations do not imply causation or foreknowledge. Portfolio performance figures reflect close-to-close exchange prices multiplied by published weights and may differ from live platform performance due to execution slippage, cash drag, or fees. Past performance does not predict future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. Not financial advice.